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Charla “Wine harvesting operations under uncertainty: determining the value and sources of flexibility”

08/08/2019 @ 1:30 pm - 2:30 pm


1:30 pm - 2:30 pm
Uncertainty plays a critical role in the production planning process and flexibility, defined as the ability to adjust the decisions as the states of nature reveals themselves, has been recognized as a way of handling uncertainty. Most of the literature on flexibility has been from an strategic perspective, analysing under which condition it generates value. In this work we take an analytical perspective using a Multi-stage stochastic optimization approach, and explore two sources of flexibility: the decision making processes and the flexibility that comes from the ability of the resources to adjust to the prevailing conditions; in an agriculture operational decision making situation which is the wine grape harvest. We proposed two different decisions processes: first, an expected value approach commonly used, and a Multi-stage stochastic optimization approach with different number of stages. We compared their performance under different uncertain rain conditions and manpower productivity. Results indicate that a Multi-stage stochastic optimization has a better performance that an expected value. Also, under highly uncertain environments with inflexible resources, such as the case of agriculture, accounting for decision flexibility generates significant value and increases the utilization of resources. Finally, the value of decision flexibility is significantly reduced when the resources are highly flexible.
Este es un trabajo conjunto con Elbio Avanzini, Jorge Vera y Sergio Maturana.


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